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Expectation, roughly put, is the percentage of profit (or loss) you can
expect when you take a seat at ‘x’ table on any given day; regardless of the cards you’re dealt.
For those who have never quite given it much thought, expectation is the long-term gravy, the
black gold, or bread & butter that overrides short-term luck. It either brings in revenue or
empties the coffers, depending on a large range of factors such as your skill (and that of your
opponents), structure of the game you’re playing, and seemingly trivial influences such as
physical comfort and health.
When it comes to evaluating expectation, many players seek out incorrect or inappropriate
guidelines instead of focusing on the current situation. By understanding the short-term
importance of expectation, we can concentrate on what really matters – The Here & Now. But this
requires a slight change in many peoples’ philosophy when it comes to using past results to
gauge future earnings. So let’s take a glimpse at current expectation, and how it should take
precedent over all other indicators.
The first leap of faith that must be taken is to realize that ALL (and I mean ALL) poker players
are going to eventually find themselves in a game where their expectation is negative. One very
common form of this example is taking a successful low buy-in player and placing him/her in a
high-stakes game that makes his/her short-term expectation negative. You could also reverse this
situation and put a top high-stakes player in an insignificant stakes game; and observe a true
digression of poker skills in many cases. However, in order to understand just how important
short-term changes in expectation are, we need to be practical instead of technical.
Although most players don’t consider it much, expectation can drastically change at the turn of
a card; with the most-common form of this phenomenon being defined as “Tilt”. A winning player
can go from dominating a game to feeding it within a few seconds, regardless of what the
“long-term” numbers show. But there are more subtle factors than steaming that change the
texture of any given game we’re seated at.
No matter how great an individual’s skills are - one should be in constant vigilance of
influences that can affect the bottom line; such as physical health, personal problems,
distractions, lack of confidence, etc. If you’re simply not in the mood to play right now, then
the best (and most-profitable) option is most-likely NOT playing. Taking a seat at a game while
on a short-fuse or with a low-tolerance level can lead to disaster.
One of the most costly traps a winning poker player can step into is using long-term profit to
justify playing in a negative-expectation game or situation. Many players use the long-term
numbers from their personal spreadsheet or poker tracking software to persuade them to play
poker, even when they have no business at the tables. Just because you’ve averaged a profit of 2
Big Bets per hour over the past two years doesn’t mean you should use that number to measure
your potential earnings for today’s session. Your actual expectation for today could be much
higher or lower, depending on your personal disposition, table selection, and bankroll (among
other things).
Making use of your ‘A’ game, paying attention, and exercising self-control are mandatory in
order to maximize expectation at the tables. There will be times when you should continue to
play in a session although you’re down – and other times when you should leave the game even
though you’re ahead. Knowing how to gauge your short-term mood and circumstance is a key element
to increasing your long-term edge.
Keeping an eye on your opponents’ tendencies can also help a player increase his/her advantage.
But if there ever comes a time when you’re uncomfortable playing against certain opponents at
your table (due to unpredictability, intimidation or other factors), then the wisest step to
take is to leave the table. After all, there’s no shame in making a judgment-based decision to
leave a game… the shame comes in egotistically ignoring/denying the facts and disregarding
common sense (and losing money because of it).
Through prudence and experience, a player will be able to detect shortcomings in his/her game
with much more accuracy. Recognizing how a player’s expectation constantly fluctuates from
session to session, even hand to hand (regardless of the cards), can provide us with a useful
tool for maintaining focus and maximizing profit. In other words, play your best poker right
now, and let the numbers take care of themselves. |
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